by Keith Ventour
In my previous Part 1 essay, I have already provided the data which shows the growth/decline support between the two parties.
In carving my overall analysis, I have taken into account, what I refer to as mass base numbers. It is clear that since 1995, the Keith Mitchell-led NNP has consistently grown its mass base, with the exception of 2003 when they lost 3,331 votes. On the contrary, the only occasions that NDC has had any meaningful growth were the periods 2003 and 2008. Since then, they have failed badly in increasing their support base. Given this imperative data, I contend that on Election Day, both parties, NNP and NDC, will start with 30,000 and 22,000 sure votes respectively. In selecting the election date, Dr Mitchell and the NNP would have scientifically crunched the numbers and therefore felt confident and satisfied enough, that they had the necessary votes to win the 23 June election. In the final analysis, it is left up to the voters to decide whether they are ‘fed up’ with Dr Keith Mitchell, as in 2003 and 2008 and to put all their confidence and trust in the new NDC leadership led by the newcomer and lawyer, Dickon Mitchell.
It is interesting to analyse the data regarding registered voter turnout (RVT) in the post invasion era. While the 2013 turnout was an unprecedented high 88.58%, the average voter turnout over the past 8 general elections was 71.21%; over the last 4 elections it was 74.64%; and 80.39% over the last 3 elections. It is my view, the 2013 percentage turnout was skewed because several thousand persons did NOT register to vote then. In fact, from the Parliamentary Elections Office data, there was actually a 13.38% REDUCTION (9,602 less) in registered voters, compared with 2008. Had the 2013 registered voters list remained close to 2008, the turnout would have been around 76%.
The new voter’s registration list published in the last week shows there is now an additional 9,528 new registered voters in 2022. If on 23 June, the RVT increases by about 5%, that is 78%, there will be about 68,000 persons casting their vote. If the above voting trend remains consistent, this will mean approximately 19,000 persons (22%), will not vote again as in 2018. If the percentage for actual votes between the 2 parties hold to a similar 60/40 ratio as in the last 2 elections, NNP will win handsomely again. If, however, there is a 50/50 split in actual voting, the result will be a close call. This will mean that NNP would marginally increase its 2022 votes as it did in 2018 and also NDC would pull off an unprecedented turnaround of more than 10,500 votes or 18%. I also hold the view that for the NDC to have a chance to win at least 1-2 seats, the voter turnout has to be between 75-80%. A higher/lower voter turnout should benefit NDC/NNP respectively.
I hasten to point out that in 2018, there were 5 seats where the NDC had a net gain over the NNP. In other words, more persons voted for the NDC than the NNP in 2018 compared with 2013. They were the 3 marginal seats, Carriacou, St George NE and St David, together with St George South and, interestingly, St George NW, Dr Mitchell’s constituency. It is also noteworthy that in the constituency of St Mark, less persons voted for Dr Clarice Modeste-Curwen as compared with 2013. It is left to be seen if this trend continues in both constituencies on 23 June. If so, I will refer to it as Parliamentary Representative Fatigue.
The new data released by the Parliamentary Elections Office shows 12 constituencies with an average of 468 new registered voters, 2 with an average of 1539, St David and South St George and 1 with 833 votes, the Town of St George. In 2018 out of the 15 constituencies, NNP won five by over 600 votes, five between 375 and 500 and 2 less than 200 votes. This new dynamic should be off grave concern to the NDC leadership for it requires a deeper resolve, and a greater challenge in overturning the aforementioned numbers. My personal view is that it will be extremely difficult to defeat the NNP in these constituencies. The other 3 constituencies, St Andrew SE, St Mark and St George NW were won by significant margins of over 1,000 votes and therefore should be considered as foregone conclusions.
I caution those who believe Dr Keith Mitchell is desperate and out of character as he uses waggish humour to great effect. I humbly believe it is a conscious, cynical and strategic move on his part to firstly, attract the youthful voters and secondly, most importantly, in doing whatever it takes to formalise his legacy by winning 3 consecutive 15-0 victories at the polls.
The following are my predictions for the 23 June General Elections. In 2018 there were 3 Marginal seats of less than 6% plus or minus 2% in which NDC lost to the NNP.
Carriacou and Petite Martinique: difference 170 votes
It is possible NDC could win Carriacou and Petite Martinique. Tevin Andrews has been around since before 2013. He was the candidate in 2018 and was able to erode a 600-plus deficit in 2013 to 170 in 2018. If this trend continues, we may see
Carriacou changing party allegiance in 2022. On the other hand, if the NNP was able to mend their differences experienced with Kindra Maturine-Stewart in 2018 and have consolidated since, they stand a compelling chance to win this seat.
St George NE: difference 127 votes
